UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION IN VALUE-DRIVEN DECISIONMAKING FOR THE AIRCRAFT, MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY CHAIN DESIGN

Abstract

The need of future, innovative, sustainable and circular aircraft configurations poses the necessity to extend the branches of the aeronautical research to the entire aircraft life-cycle, from the production, to the disposal after the end of the system life. This surely enlarges the design space making the decision-making process even more complex, having to consider multiple criteria at the same time while taking decisions. However, making decisions on future design configurations, exploring all the possible solutions of the design space, is essential to drastically reduce the overall aircraft cost. Usually, value-model theories are used to support the multi-criteria decision-making process. In this paper, the value model theory is leveraged for the identification of the best solution based on multiple criteria related to the design of the aircraft, its manufacturing and supply chain. In addition, uncertainty propagation analyses are performed for the identification of the robust and flexible solutions, thus the solutions minimizing the value oscillations and being optimal independently from the analyzed case. An aeronautical application case is presented to highlight the advantages of this study.