A Methodology for Efficient Statistical Analysis of Air Distance in Aviation

Abstract

In aviation, atmospheric effects can significantly impact the efficiency or even the feasibility of a mission. While planning an upcoming mission primarily relies on current weather forecast data, it is beneficial to consider long-term weather effects for strategic decisions and impact assessments. This study introduces a method for an efficient preparation and evaluation of atmospheric data for conducting long-term analyses. The method is based on the discretization and efficient evaluation of atmospheric data and is demonstrated over a three-year period. Various discretization approaches are investigated for their performance, and the model results are validated against conventional long-term analyses of individual atmospheric data. We find that the method is particularly efficient and precise for determining averaged wind effects. While the method also allows for the consideration of specific percentiles of air distances, these considerations are particularly suitable for shortand medium-range segments. Finally, the method is demonstrated using two exemplary use cases. Multi-year atmospheric data are used to evaluate the statistical range of an aircraft from two exemplary airports. Additionally, a statistical analysis exemplarily quantifies the necessary air distance to meet passenger demand under multi-year atmospheric conditions.