Severe Convectively Induced Turbulence Hitting a Passenger Aircraft and Its Forecast by the ECMWF IFS Model

Abstract

Atmospheric turbulence poses a major risk to aviation. Besides airframe damage, it can cause injuries of passengers and crew when encountered unexpectedly. The Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 was on its way from London to Singapore when severe turbulence was encountered over Myanmar on 21 May 2024. In this study, it is analyzed how well the turbulence was predicted by the turbulent eddy dissipation rate (EDR) forecast index of the ECMWF integrated forecasting system (IFS). It was found that ECMWF IFS was able to predict the convection and associated turbulence 24 hr in advance. The state‐of‐the‐art probabilistic EDR forecasts based on IFS ensemble members predicted probabilities for EDR >0.18 m**2/3 s**-1 between 10% and 40% over Myanmar with higher values for shorter lead time (8-hr forecast). Individual members predicted EDR >0.3 m**2/3 s**-1. Knowledge about the characteristics of convection in the IFS forecasts is required to make proper use of the probabilities determined from the ensemble for such cases.