Prediction of the TID activity index during geomagnetic storm events for different longitudinal sectors

Abstract

Frequently observed during geomagnetic storm events, the Large Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs) correspond to wave-like perturbations in the ionospheric electron density. They are the signatures in the ionosphere of Atmospheric Gravity Waves triggered due to the dissipation of energy and momentum in the auroral region during geomagnetic storms. Several investigations of the phenomena have been performed during the last decades in order to characterize its magnitude, frequency of occurrence and propagation parameters for different longitudinal sectors using different instruments. Recently, a new index based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements has been proposed, which allows statistical analysis of TIDs occurrence and prediction of TID activity at mid-latitude Europe. One of the methodologies proposed for predicting the TID activity index is based on a linear regression approach and uses historical values of solar wind measurements obtained from the Lagrangian point L1 in order to predict the TID activity level for different lead times. So far, the prediction of the TID activity index has been demonstrated for a single station in mid-latitude Europe only. Here, we evaluate the performance of the prediction model for different longitudinal sectors and investigate how it varies for the different sectors.