Evaluating the Impact of Hydrogen Combustion Maintenance on Aircraft Economics

Abstract

The transition to greener air travel is driving the development of innovative aircraft designs that prioritize reducing environmental impact, such as hydrogen-powered aircraft. However, for these designs to be truly successful, they must not only reduce their environmental footprint, but also ensure economic viability for operators. Achieving this balance requires a thorough analysis of their life cycle and the associated costs. In particular, changes in maintenance due to new technologies can have a high impact on the life cycle, but have not yet been sufficiently researched. Therefore, the objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the share of maintenance costs in the life cycle of hydrogen-powered aircraft concepts using hydrogen combustion in contrast to conventional kerosene engines. To achieve this, a comparative analysis between conventional aircraft engines and hydrogen combustion engines will be carried out. This analysis includes an in-depth technical review of both systems to identify and categorise the key differences. In the early phase of product development, none or only limited data is available, which leads to a multitude of assumptions and associated uncertainties in the analysis. To overcome this problem, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is used to incorporate expert opinion, empirical data and other information to make a comprehensive assessment of maintenance costs despite the uncertainties. In this study, we focus mainly on expert knowledge to analyse the expected changes in lifetime and maintenance activities associated with changes in parameters such as purchase price, exhaust gas temperature limit, life limited parts limits, shop visit efforts and other key factors. In addition, a global sensitivity analysis measures the impact of uncertainty in input variables on maintenance costs, identifies key cost drivers, and explains how different parameters affect the overall estimates. This study demonstrates the early estimation of maintenance costs within the product development process using an innovative framework that combines evidence theory and global sensitivity analysis. The results contribute to a comprehensive understanding of maintenance costs and associated constraints for hydrogen-combustion engines. This information can be integrated into the development process to support decision making and increase the potential for successful integration of new engine concepts or other new technologies into future aircraft designs. With a thorough understanding of maintenance costs, stakeholders can make informed decisions that balance environmental sustainability and economic feasibility in promoting green air mobility.