Future electricity demand for Europe: Unraveling the dynamics of the Temperature Response Function

Abstract

Electricity demand is a crucial factor in energy system planning. Understanding future electricity demand is vital for developing effective energy and climate policies, as well as establishing a resilient and sustainable energy system. In light of these considerations, the escalating challenges posed by climate change are anticipated to have a substantial impact on electricity demand. This study, therefore, provides a comprehensive analysis delving into the dynamic nature of Temperature Response Functions (TRFs) of electricity demand across Europe. By examining various factors influencing electricity demand in residential buildings, such as thermal insulation, heating electrification, space cooling, and passive cooling, we aim to understand their collective impact on shaping future Temperature Response Functions. To project electricity demand, our study incorporates these factors into our scenario assumptions. Through a comprehensive investigation of these scenarios, our findings reveal distinctive regional influences of these factors. In regions where heating demand prevails, an initial increase in electricity demand is anticipated due to increased electrification rates. However, improved building thermal insulation is expected to substantially reduce winter electricity demand in the long run. Conversely, in regions with pronounced cooling demand, a notable escalation in electricity demand is foreseen due to increased space cooling penetration rate. Nevertheless, the application of effective passive cooling measurements is expected to mitigate and markedly diminish this increase. By highlighting the differential influences of these factors on electricity demand across Europe, our findings can offer valuable insights and guidelines first for energy system modelers for considering the change in Temperature Response Functions and second for policymakers to develop effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.