Interpretable Multiscale Machine Learning-Based Parameterizations of Convection for ICON

Abstract

Machine learning (ML)-based parameterizations have been developed for Earth System Models (ESMs) with the goal to better represent subgrid-scale processes or to accelerate computations. ML-based parameterizations within hybrid ESMs have successfully learned subgrid-scale processes from short high-resolution simulations. However, most studies used a particular ML method to parameterize the subgrid tendencies or fluxes originating from the compound effect of various small-scale processes (e.g., radiation, convection, gravity waves) in mostly idealized settings or from superparameterizations. Here, we use a filtering technique to explicitly separate convection from these processes in simulations with the Icosahedral Non-hydrostatic modeling framework (ICON) in a realistic setting and benchmark various ML algorithms against each other offline. We discover that an unablated U-Net, while showing the best offline performance, learns reverse causal relations between convective precipitation and subgrid fluxes. While we were able to connect the learned relations of the U-Net to physical processes this was not possible for the non-deep learning-based Gradient Boosted Trees. The ML algorithms are then coupled online to the host ICON model. Our best online performing model, an ablated U-Net excluding precipitating tracer species, indicates higher agreement for simulated precipitation extremes and mean with the high-resolution simulation compared to the traditional scheme. However, a smoothing bias is introduced both in water vapor path and mean precipitation. Online, the ablated U-Net significantly improves stability compared to the non-ablated U-Net and runs stable for the full simulation period of 180 days. Our results hint to the potential to significantly reduce systematic errors with hybrid ESMs.