Clustering the European Union electric vehicle markets: A scenario analysis until 2035

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) play a crucial role in the ongoing road transportation transition. European regulations on greenhouse gas emissions significantly boosted EV new registrations across most European Union (EU) countries. To model their future development in Europe, we adopt a hierarchical clustering approach, which allows us to group the countries under 7 clusters based on how evolved they are in the transition to net zero-emission passenger car new registrations. Subsequently, we select representative countries for each identified cluster. By using these representative countries, we run a scenario analysis for each cluster to obtain the electrification path of the different passenger car markets across the EU until 2035. In our scenario, innovator clusters are well-positioned to achieve the CO2 zero-emission passenger car target before 2035. However, other clusters, represented by Poland and Greece, are lagging behind even after 2030 and might face challenges to reach the target in 2035.