Scenario-based Analysis of Electrification Effects on Value Creation and Employment for the Automotive Cluster in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany

Abstract

The transformation path to electric mobility will have fundamental impacts on the existing value chain and employment structures in the automotive industry. This paper examines these effects on the basis of each two different electric mobility market scenarios for the European (EU27) passenger car as well as truck market 2040 with special focus on the highly export-oriented industrial automotive cluster Baden-Wuerttemberg. To achieve this, each a moderate and a progressive market scenario were simulated using the scientifically validated DLR VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model, based on two different parameter sets derived from actual and possible framework conditions on the European car and truck markets. On the basis of a detailed analysis of the industrial branch, value creation and employee structure in Baden-Wuerttemberg and its automotive cluster, the effects resulting from the transformation to electric mobility will be displayed. With detailed fade-in and fade-out analysis, the shifts from internal combustion engine components to electrified components will be derived and illustrated for each single employee segment in the automotive cluster. The detailed display of the automotive cluster in this study allows for regionalized statements on possible employment effects, for the first time considering also the truck segment.