Car or Cargo Bike? Determinants for the Use of a Small Vehicle Type in Urban Logistics: A Stated Preference Survey Among Commercial Transport Operators

Abstract

To address the adverse effects of urban freight, downshifting to smaller vehicles, such as cargo bikes, has been indicated as a viable solution. Existing literature on freight mode choice rarely considers vehicles smaller than truck size. We aimed to fill this research gap by quantifying how vehicular, operational, trip-based, contextual, and individual determinants influenced the decision between cargo bikes and cars in urban logistics. To that end, a stated preference survey was conducted among 537 German organizations after they had been familiarized with cargo bikes through a 3-month vehicle trial period. Participants then took part in a survey in which they had to choose between the modes cargo bike, car, or neither of these two alternatives. The survey data were analyzed using a mixed logit model with 4,833 observations. The model estimations demonstrated that the values and signs of parameters were in accordance with both our expectations and the literature. The results indicated that cargo bikes were an attractive alternative to cars for delivery and service trips of short duration in fair weather. The probability of choosing a cargo bike over a car could be further increased by improving bike infrastructure or imposing parking limitations. The preference for cargo bike could be observed for respondents in dense urban centers and low-density parts of the country alike. Around 3 out of 10 respondents decided to buy their own cargo bike after the study, demonstrating the effectiveness of low-threshold testing programs in changing habits toward more sustainable mobility solutions.