The Influence of Snow Cover Variability on the Runoff in Syr Darya Headwater Catchments between 2000 and 2022 Based on the Analysis of Remote Sensing Time Series

Abstract

Climate change is affecting the snow cover conditions on a global scale, leading to changes in the extent and duration of snow cover as well as variations in the start and end of snow cover seasons. These changes can have a paramount impact on runoff and water availability, especially in catchments that are characterized by nival runoff regimes, e.g., the Syr Darya in Central Asia. This time series analyses of daily MODIS snow cover products and in situ data from hydrological stations for the time series from 2000 through 2022 reveal the influences of changing snow cover on the runoff regime. All catchments showed a decrease in spring snow cover duration of −0.53 to −0.73 days per year over the 22-year period. Catchments located farther west are generally characterized by longer snow cover duration and experience a stronger decreasing trend. Runoff timing was found to be influenced by late winter and spring snow cover duration, pointing towards earlier snowmelt in most of the regions, which affects the runoff in some tributaries of the river. The results of this study indicate that the decreasing snow cover duration trends lead to an earlier runoff, which demands more coordinated water resource management in the Syr Darya catchment. Further research is recommended to understand the implications of snow cover dynamics on water resources in Central Asia, crucial for agriculture and hydropower production.