Long-term impact of limited airport capacity on passenger demand and fleet development worldwide up to 2050

Abstract

Based upon a global passenger demand and flight volume forecast on airport pair level which includes limited airport capacity we present a fleet model, which splits up the flight volume into seat classes and aircraft types. For a better understanding of the forecast and fleet model results we start with a detailed description of the methodology employed. The unique features of the model are: - The consideration of potentially limited airport capacity, like at London Heathrow and their impact on passenger demand and fleet development - The airport pair-specific approach, so that the results are consistent at the airport level - The global coverage of about 4000 airports Typical forecasts do not include the impact of limited airport capacity and do not work at the airport level in case of global coverage. After presenting the method we show results of the demand and fleet development up to 2050 for the case with and without airport capacity constraints and their effects on passenger demand and fleet. This includes results of the fleet distribution according to ICAO seat classes, new aircraft deliveries and the shares of narrowbody and widebody aircraft. Aircraft deliveries up to 2042 will be compared to existing manufacturers forecasts like Airbus and Boeing, the ICAO LTF, as well as forecasts of Embraer and ATR for smaller aircraft. Finally, we will discuss the results regarding two scenarios, i.e. one with and without limited airport capacity.