Analysis of Passenger Car Tailpipe Emissions in Different World Regions through 2050

Abstract

This study presents a carbon dioxide (CO2), exhaust particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) tailpipe emission analysis of passenger cars in nine countries, representing different world regions up to 2050 using a bottom-up calculation method. A diffusion model is used to analyze the development of different drivetrain/fuel technologies in the respective vehicle stocks of each world region. Drivetrain- and country-specific emission factors are weighted according to the modelled stock compositions. The obtained stock fleets’ average emission factors are multiplied by the transport demand in order to obtain the total passenger car emissions. Our findings reveal global passenger car CO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions decrease by approximately 45%, 63% and 54%, respectively, between 2015 and 2050. Gasoline will remain a significant energy carrier in 2050 with about a 25% stock share. However, electric vehicles will be in the lead, especially after 2040. Additionally, rising transport demand offsets emission reductions in some regions. This study aims to provide global and regional insights into future emissions trends and their driving factors.