Assessing Uncertainties of an Evolutionary Baseline as Benchmark of Future Aircraft Designs

Abstract

To enable a fair comparison when quantifying the impact of revolutionary new aircraft technologies, it is required to establish an evolutionary baseline configuration, having a realistic technology scenario fitting the projected state of the art for the targeted entry into service. To do so, first a reference aircraft that meeting the top-level aircraft requirements has to be selected, which provides a set of known values to calibrate the applied design methods. Then, the aircraft performance has to be forecasted by taking evolutionary technological improvements into account, assuming a technology scenario projected to be the state of the art at the targeted entry into service. Using the resulting configuration as basis, the revolutionary new technologies can be integrated and evaluated on the overall aircraft design level. In this way, it is possible to provide a fair comparison of technological benefits and to identify potential design drivers or challenges that may arise.

The primary objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties associated with evolutionary technology assumptions in the context of aircraft design. Specifically, the focus is on evaluating how these uncertainties affect critical metrics such as block fuel, direct operating costs and climate impact. Through a probabilistic assessment, the aim is to present not just a nominal point of comparison for new technologies, instead a spectrum of potential solutions across different scenarios is provided. By incorporating insights from both a literature review on evolutionary technologies and an expert-based technology projection workshop, the uncertainties of the inputs were quantified and embedded in the DLR vehicle design process. The results highlight the impact range each evolutionary technology can have on key aircraft metrics, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding of overall aircraft performance and providing a solid basis for judging future aircraft designs incorporating revolutionary technologies.