Carbon-neutral power system enabled e-kerosene production in Brazil in 2050

Abstract

Rich in renewable resources, extensive acreage, and bioenergy expertise, Brazil, however, has no established strategies for sustainable aviation fuels, particularly e‑kerosene. We extend the lens from the often‑studied economic feasibility of individual e‑kerosene supply chains to a system‑wide perspective. Employing energy system analyses, we examine the integration of e‑kerosene production into Brazil’s national energy supplies. We introduce PyPSA‑Brazil, an open‑source energy system optimisation model grounded in public data. This model integrates e‑kerosene production and offers granular spatial resolution, enabling federal‑level informed decisions on infrastructure locations and enhancing transparency in Brazilian energy supply scenarios. Our findings indicate that incorporating e‑kerosene production can bolster system efficiency as Brazil targets a carbon‑neutral electricity supply by 2050. The share of e‑kerosene in meeting kerosene demand fluctuates between 2.7 and 51.1%, with production costs varying from 113.3 to 227.3 €/MWh. These costs are influenced by factors such as biokerosene costs, carbon pricing, and export aspirations. Our findings are relevant for Brazilian policymakers championing aviation sustainability and offer a framework for other countries envisioning carbon‑neutral e‑kerosene production and export.