Unlocking the Potential of Renewable Energy for E-kerosene Production in Brazil

Abstract

This dissertation deals with how a country transitions into a suitable producer and prospective exporter of sustainable aviation fuels in the upcoming global market while progressing towards a carbon-neutral national power system. One candidate for this endeavour is Brazil. It has substantial renewable resources, extensive acreage, and considerable expertise in bioenergy production. However, Brazil has not yet developed strategies for producing e-kerosene that is underpinned by a carbon-neutral energy supply. While much of the existing literature primarily explores the economic performance and optimal configuration of components in the e-kerosene production chain, this research broadens this focus to model-based scenario analysis of national energy supplies to include cross-sectoral impacts. The novelty of this approach is that besides integrating e-kerosene production chains, the granular spatial resolution of the model allows investigations at the level of the federal states, thus aiding future location decisions for necessary energy infrastructure. The current energy system models used for Brazil exhibit limitations: they are either closed-source, lack sufficient resolution, or disregard the energy balancing of aviation fuels. In response, the energy system optimisation model, PyPSA-Brazil, was developed as part of this dissertation. The PyPSA-Brazil model is completely open-source and relies on publicly available data sets. Therefore, it represents a significant step towards transparent planning processes in Brazil for exploring national energy supply scenarios, even compared to models of many industrialised countries. The first phase compiles a comprehensive open data set for scenario analysis. This data set includes various elements: (i) time series data of variable renewable potentials, electricity load profiles, inflows for the hydropower plants, and cross-border electricity exchanges; (ii) eospatial data on the administrative division of the Brazilian federal states; and (iii) tabular data with power plant information, aggregated grid network topology, biomass thermal plant potential, and scenarios of energy demand. In the second phase, an open-source energy system optimisation model is established based on the curated dataset to nvestigate the potential synergies of a fully decarbonised power system with simultaneous e-kerosene production in Brazil. It further discusses the trade-offs between e-kerosene supply and competing options such as biokerosene and conventional kerosene. The results indicate that attaining a carbon-neutral power system in Brazil in 2050 would result in an average electricity cost of 50.3 e/MWh, wherein wind and solar sources contribute to half of the energy generation. Integrating e-kerosene production reduces the renewable curtailment and the reliance on hy-dropower. The e-kerosene share in meeting kerosene demand varies between 2.7% and 51.1%, and its levelised cost for production ranges from 113.3 e/MWh to 227.3 e/MWh. These variations are influenced by biokerosene production costs, carbon pricing, and export intentions. These findings are significant for policymakers and stakeholders in Brazil’s energy sector, especially those concerned with sustainable energy and aviation-related environmental issues. The methodology developed herein could serve as a cornerstone for other countries aspiring to become producers and exporters of carbon-neutral e-kerosene.