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Preprint: Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting Framework for Application in Distributed Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Telle, Jan-Simon and Upadhaya, Ajay and Schönfeldt, Patrik and Steens, Thomas and Hanke, Benedikt and Maydell, Karsten (2023) Preprint: Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting Framework for Application in Distributed Integrated Renewable Energy Systems. [Other]

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Abstract

This study endeavors to establish an simple, robust, and transparent forecasting framework that is easily deployable, computationally efficient, and adaptable across the various sectors constituting distributed integrated energy systems. Accordingly, a probabilistic day-ahead forecasting framework and its application are presented. A personalized standard load profile (PSLP) is then applied to electricity and heat demand, as well as PV generation. Furthermore, it is extended to incorporate a quantile personalized standard load profile employing quantile regression. Using a PCHIP interpolation, the empirical cumulative distribution function is approximated from the non-parametric approach and the probability density function derived. Furthermore, it is shown how discrete convolution can be used to determine the joint probability density function of the distributed net load. A case study was conducted at a commercial logistics facility that utilized a decentralized energy system to showcase the forecasting framework and its application for optimization in the presence of uncertainty. This involved using the net load and its probability density functions for uncertainty-based optimization.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/199259/
Document Type:Other
Title:Preprint: Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting Framework for Application in Distributed Integrated Renewable Energy Systems
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Telle, Jan-SimonUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6228-6815UNSPECIFIED
Upadhaya, AjayUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Schönfeldt, PatrikUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4311-2753UNSPECIFIED
Steens, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4218-3015UNSPECIFIED
Hanke, BenediktUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7927-0123UNSPECIFIED
Maydell, KarstenUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2023
Journal or Publication Title:TechRxiv
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI:10.36227/techrxiv.24552172.v1
Series Name:TechRxiv
Status:Published
Keywords:Net Load Forecasting, Integrated Energy System, Probabilistic Forecasting, Quantil Regression
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Digitalization and System Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Energy System Technology
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy System Technology
Deposited By: Telle, Jan-Simon
Deposited On:22 Nov 2023 15:37
Last Modified:22 Nov 2023 15:37

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