Dunkelflaute and long-term electric energy shortage events in Europe

Abstract

In central Europe, slowly moving low-pressure systems in winter can cause prolonged periods of low wind and solar power generation with simultaneously increased demand for electricity for heating. Information about such electric energy shortage events is important for long term planning of storage capacities and other flexibility options in energy supply systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources. Furthermore, multi-annual remaining residual loads may cause additional needs of VRE generators. We use the TYNDP Distributed Energy1 scenario and 30 years of ERA5 reanalysis data2 to investigate shortage events of different duration that, given the installed capacities from the scenario, would have happened in Europe between 1990 and 2020. The information helps assessing the amount of energy required for balancing or generator extension. We also identify the calendar dates when the events would have occurred. The identified most critical calendar periods can be used as input to specify the set-up of further energy systems analysis studies.