Clean energy transition in informal transport: modeling drivers’ interest to switch to electric vehicles.

Abstract

The transport sector is one of the largest emitters and fastest-growing source of GHG emissions. Hence, decarbonizing transport is needed to mitigate anthropogenic climate change and meet the 1.5° Celsius arget of the Paris Agreement. A focus lies on urban areas in the Global South, where high population growth and urbanization rates increase transport demand. While governments and transport agencies in many developing countries are starting to electrify public transport fleets (e.g. rail and buses), the ubiquitous informal transport sector is a roadblock towards electrification. Specifically, the unique constellation of self-employed transport workers operating small-size, privately-owned vehicles (e.g. three-wheelers and minibuses) implies that individuals are the main agents to address. In this context, we assess the adoption of a new technology, electric three-wheelers, from a socioeconomic perspective by modeling three-wheeler drivers’ interest to switch to electric vehicles (EVs). We use stated-preference data (N=152) collected in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Our results show that: (i) the vast majority of drivers (82.2 %) are interested in transitioning to EVs; (ii) anticipated cost savings increase their interest in EVs; (iii) the financing and/or ownership scheme of the vehicle is important; (iv) being able to park the vehicle at night in a known and safe location is relevant; and, (v) drivers of old vehicles are more willing to transition to electric vehicles. We conclude that to foster a clean energy transition, policymakers should better communicate the financial benefits of operating EVs, while at the same time incentivize their purchase (e.g., through subsidies, regulatory privileges, or financing models) and provide charging infrastructure at parking hotspots.