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Solar irradiance nowcasting based on a network of all sky imagers: the value of high-resolution data on variability information

Schmidt, Thomas and Stührenberg, Jonas and Schellhorn, Maximilian and Blum, Niklas and Lezaca Galeano, Jorge Enrique and Hammer, Annette and von Bremen, Lüder and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion (2023) Solar irradiance nowcasting based on a network of all sky imagers: the value of high-resolution data on variability information. EMS Annual Meeting 2023, 03.-08. Sep. 2023, Bratislava, Slowakei.

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Abstract

The transition to a fossil-free energy system requires rapid installation of photovoltaic (PV) systems. For Germany, the government is targeting an installed PV capacity of 215 Gigawatt by 2030 (70 GW by 2023). This target is associated with an increased installation rate of 22 gigawatts PV per year (around three times compared to the 2021 rate). In urban areas, the majority of systems will be installed on rooftops connected to the low-voltage grid. It is therefore likely, that the majority of suitable rooftops will be equipped with PV systems in the next 10 years. In parallel, significant changes in load patterns (e.g. e-mobility, heat pumps) and the integration of battery storages can be expected. The efficient integration of the additional PV systems into the electrical grid also requires a detailed understanding of the generation profiles at different levels from the household to the transformer. Therefore, the impact of very-short-term solar irradiance variability on ramp rates and balancing effects should be investigated for scenarios with decentralized, but denser PV generation than today. Since this variability is mainly caused by small scale cloud dynamics, high resolution information on temporal and spatial cloud cover and irradiance distribution is needed. In northwestern Germany, DLR has installed and is operating Eye2Sky, a dense network of all-sky imagers (ASI). At 30 different locations, high-resolution fisheye images of the sky are taken every 30 seconds. At 10 locations, the images are complemented by radiation and meteorological measurements. The Eye2Sky network covers about 100 km x 100 km centered at the city of Oldenburg. It has a low ASI density in rural areas and a high density in city of Oldenburg, thus providing an almost complete coverage of the city. Eye2Sky is used to study solar irradiance variability in the city of Oldenburg at a high spatial (50 meters) and temporal (30 seconds) resolution. This enables simulations of single rooftop PV systems. Compared to state-of-the art radiation data sources like satellite images or numerical weather models (NWP), the camera information in Eye2Sky resolves cloud details that cause solar irradiance fluctuations on small scales down to household level. In this work, we would like to present a solar irradiance nowcasting validation from the ASI network in Oldenburg and its comparison with methods based on satellite (MSG) as well as NWP (ICON-D2) data. Emphasis will be made on the ability of the different methods to reproduce the spatio-temporal variability under different cloud conditions

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/197508/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Solar irradiance nowcasting based on a network of all sky imagers: the value of high-resolution data on variability information
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Schmidt, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3205-2724UNSPECIFIED
Stührenberg, JonasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3777-2632UNSPECIFIED
Schellhorn, MaximilianUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Blum, NiklasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1541-7234UNSPECIFIED
Lezaca Galeano, Jorge EnriqueUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5513-7467UNSPECIFIED
Hammer, AnnetteUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-5630-3620UNSPECIFIED
von Bremen, LüderUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7072-0738UNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, MarionUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-903XUNSPECIFIED
Date:5 September 2023
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Nowcast, All Sky Imager, Variability, Solar Irradiance
Event Title:EMS Annual Meeting 2023
Event Location:Bratislava, Slowakei
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:03.-08. Sep. 2023
Organizer:EMS
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, OL
Institute of Solar Research
Deposited By: Schmidt, Dr Thomas
Deposited On:25 Sep 2023 15:30
Last Modified:25 Sep 2023 15:30

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