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Versorgungsicherheit in Deutschland und Mitteleuropa während Extremwetter-Ereignissen (VERMEER) - Der Beitrag des transnationalen Stromhandels bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien

Nitsch, Felix and Scholz, Yvonne and Hu, Wenxuan and von Krbek, Kai and Stegen, Roland and El Ghazi, Aboubakr Achraf and Frey, Ulrich and Nienhaus, Kristina and Finck, Rafael and Slednev, Viktor and Ardone, Armin and Fichtner, Wolf (2023) Versorgungsicherheit in Deutschland und Mitteleuropa während Extremwetter-Ereignissen (VERMEER) - Der Beitrag des transnationalen Stromhandels bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien. Project Report. 65 S.

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The VERMEER project evaluates the consequences of extreme weather events for the securi-ty of supply of electricity in Germany, considering the flexibility potential of cross-border electricity trading with regard to weather-dependent transmission grid transfer capacities. For this purpose, several specialized models for defining extreme weather situations, calcu-lating renewable energy generation timeseries, simulating cross-border trading and grid transfer capacities have been further developed and coupled. "Dunkelflauten" or dark dol-drums, periods of low combined wind and solar power generation, are projected to increase in the coming century by approximately 11% to 19% according to two climate projection calculations. An in-depth analysis of historical weather patterns (applied to wind and solar generation fleet of the target year of this study - 2035) reveals this for a system as defined in the TYNDP Distributed Energy scenario. During the winter of 1996/1997, the residual load, an indicator of potential under-supply situations like cold dark doldrums, reached notably high levels over a three-month period - but also for shorter periods such as days or weeks. Analyses of the German and neighboring electricity markets show that within the assump-tions based on this scenario extreme weather events such as the examined cold dark dol-drums lead to shortages in the German market zone that cannot be compensated by conven-tional generation or cross-border trading. Trading flows to neighboring market zones are significantly altered during such events compared to a base case scenario. The simultaneous occurrence of extreme weather across Europe limits the effectiveness of increased trans-mission capacities in ensuring security of supply, necessitating additional reserve capacities. Regarding power grids, the analyzed extreme situation reduces the occurrence of grid bot-tlenecks, as they strongly correlate with wind power generation and constitute a weak wind event. However, with increased transmission capacity, the overall amount for redispatch rises; renewable energy curtailment is less affected than conventional power plants. In addi-tion to the market-oriented assessment of security of supply, network simulations indicate that a slight amount of load shedding is necessary in all scenarios to ensure a bottleneck-free operation. The necessary load shedding does not exhibit a significant increase between the base scenario and the extreme situation, nor can it be substantially reduced by increas-ing transmission capacities. In summary, and contrary to expectations, the expansion of the electricity network does not offer significant additional relief during extreme weather events.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/196641/
Document Type:Monograph (Project Report)
Title:Versorgungsicherheit in Deutschland und Mitteleuropa während Extremwetter-Ereignissen (VERMEER) - Der Beitrag des transnationalen Stromhandels bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Nitsch, FelixUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9824-3371UNSPECIFIED
Scholz, YvonneUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1633-3825UNSPECIFIED
Frey, UlrichUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9803-1336UNSPECIFIED
Nienhaus, KristinaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4180-6767UNSPECIFIED
Date:31 July 2023
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Number of Pages:65
Series Name:Schlussbericht (FKZ 03EI1010)
Keywords:Energiesystemanalyse, Extremwetter, Strommarkt, Stromnetz, Versorgungssicherheit
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, ST
Deposited By: Nitsch, Felix
Deposited On:07 Sep 2023 09:45
Last Modified:07 Sep 2023 09:45

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