A framework for evaluating site-specific risks for a climate-neutral energy supply of companies

Abstract

For an individual company it is theoretically always possible to reduce energyrelated greenhouse gas emissions, the so-called "Scope 2 emissions". However, this is only possible within certain political or physical limits. The hypothesis of the research is that the available potential of renewable energy sources may not be sufficient to cover all energy demands at every location for a company, which stands in contradiction to a sustainable future. For a holistic supply risk assessment the company’s energy management has to dynamically interact with state-of-the-art understanding of energy demand modelling, energy infrastructure modelling and market developments. Research in the latter fields are not tailored to such application. This thesis aims to bridge that gap. Results for electricity supply and infrastructure research aimed towards a climate neutral economic landscape, namely results from the REMix model developed by the German Aerospace Center, are combined with company specific demand predictions in the form of regressions. A KPI is developed in this research, which directly assesses the supply risk with climate neutral electricity based on future energy systems, on the nation wide as well as at the company level. The model is tested on two case studies of the BMWGroup and WALA Heilmittel GmbH in Germany, which show high discrepancies in nation wide and localized risks. This serves as a benchmark of the contradiction between research aimed at electricity supply in a climate neutral energy landscape and growth projections for singular companies. On the other hand, local investigations point out company sites where the supply with renewables is reliable. The model created in this research can in turn aid with executive decisions within companies to ensure guided development in the light of a sustainable future.