Operating narrow-body aircraft with power-to-liquid and liquid hydrogen propulsion: An economic analysis under uncertainty

Abstract

There is an ongoing discussion in the aviation industry which future energy carrier is ecological and economically viable. We contribute to this discussion by analyzing the economics of operating future narrow-body aircraft designs with power-to-liquid (PtL) and liquid hydrogen (LH2) propulsion. Our research design is based on simulating and comparing the economics of operating future narrow-body aircraft designs with PtL and LH2 propulsion. We create a variety of scenarios with different assumptions for cost and revenue drivers as well as operational characteristics and usage of these aircraft designs. Thus, we capture the primary economic uncertainties (e.g., energy prices and operating distances) related to operating future aircraft designs with PtL and LH2 propulsion. We expect three major findings from our research. First, we identify the main drivers for the cost and operating performance of narrow-body aircraft designs with PtL and LH2 propulsion. Second, we determine under which cost and operating scenarios PtL and LH2 are economically viable for operating these aircraft designs. Finally, we use our results to identify potential levers for influencing the economic success of PtL and LH2 in aviation (e.g., via technology development or policy measures). The originality of our research paper lies in including the primary economic uncertainties and the latest literature contributions (e.g., in the fields of aircraft design and energy carrier prices) into the economic assessment of future PtL and LH2 aircraft designs. In addition, we contribute to the ongoing discussion about future energy carriers in aviation by identifying the main drivers and potential levers for the cost and operating performance of PtL and LH2 aircraft designs.