The future role of synthetic fuels in German road transport - estimation of potential fuel demand using technology-based scenario analyses

Abstract

The reduction of CO2 emissions from road transport in Germany has been minimal, with only a 6 percent decrease since 1990. However, the national aim is to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. This paper outlines a scenario model that estimates the adoption of alternative drive systems and energy sources in the car and truck sector, as well as the resulting energy demand in Germany until 2050. The findings indicate that battery electric vehicles will rapidly become the norm in all scenarios, although even with stricter CO2 fleet regulations, the German government's climate goals may not be reached without additional measures. The use of climate-neutral synthetic fuels, in combination with other transportation policy instruments, could help to attain the CO2 sector targets for German transportation.