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Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change

Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J. and Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J. and Huntrieser, Heidi and Jöckel, Patrick (2023) Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change. Nature Communications, 14 (1), pp. 1-11. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5. ISSN 2041-1723.

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Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5


Lightning is the main precursor of natural wildfires and Long-Continuing-Current (LCC) lightning flashes are proposed to be the main igniters of lightning-ignited wildfires (LIW). Previous studies predict a change of the global occurrence rate and spatial pattern of total lightning. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of lightning-ignited wildfire occurrence to climate change is uncertain. Here, we investigate space-based measurements of LCC lightning associated with lightning ignitions and present LCC lightning projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP6.0 for the 2090s by applying a recent LCC lightning parameterization based on the updraft strength in thunderstorms. We find a 41% global increase of the LCC lightning flash rate. Increases are largest in South America, the western coast of North America, Central America, Australia, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Europe, while only regional variations are found in northern polar forests, where fire risk can affect permafrost soil carbon release. These results show that lightning schemes including LCC lightning are needed to project the occurrence of lightning-ignited wildfires under climate change

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/193970/
Document Type:Article
Title:Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Pérez-Invernón, Francisco J.IAA, CSIC, Granada, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Gordillo-Vázquez, Francisco J.IAA, CSIC, Granada, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Huntrieser, HeidiDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8046-1859UNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394UNSPECIFIED
Date:10 February 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Nature Communications
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1-11
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
Keywords:Long-Continuing-Current, lightning-ignited wildfires, climate change
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Trace Species
Deposited By: Huntrieser, Dr.rer.nat. Heidi
Deposited On:22 Feb 2023 07:45
Last Modified:04 Dec 2023 11:16

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