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Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness

Aghahosseini, Arman and Solomon, A. A. and Breyer, Christian and Pregger, Thomas and Simon, Sonja and Strachan, Peter and Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf (2023) Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness. Applied Energy, 331 (120401). Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120401. ISSN 0306-2619.

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Official URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922016580?via%3Dihub


This study presents a novel energy system modelling approach for the analysis and comparison of global energy transition pathways for the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. The results of the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Teske/DLR scenarios are each reproduced. Additionally, five new energy transition trajectories, called LUT, are presented. The research examines the feasibility of each scenario across nine major regions in 5-year intervals, from 2015 to 2050, under a uniform modelling environment with identical technical and financial assumptions. The main differences between the energy transition paths are identified across: (1) the average electricity generation costs; (2) energy diversity; (3) system flexibility; (4) energy security; and, (5) transition dynamics. All LUT and Teske/DLR scenarios are transitioned to zero CO2 emissions and a 100% renewable energy system by 2050 at the latest. Results reveal that the LUT scenarios are the least-cost pathways, while the Teske/DLR scenarios are centred around energy diversity with slightly higher LCOE of around 10-20%. The IEA shares similarities with the Teske/DLR scenarios in terms of energy diversity yet depends on the continued use of fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power. The IEA scenario based on current governmental policies presents a worst-case situation regarding CO2 emissions reduction, climate change and overall system costs.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/192820/
Document Type:Article
Title:Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Aghahosseini, ArmanLappeenranta University of TechnologyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Solomon, A. A.Lappeenranta University of TechnologyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Breyer, ChristianLappeenranta University of TechnologyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Pregger, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6728-7451UNSPECIFIED
Simon, SonjaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457UNSPECIFIED
Strachan, PeterAberdeen Business SchoolUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jäger-Waldau, ArnulfEuropean Commission, Joint Research CentreUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:1 February 2023
Journal or Publication Title:Applied Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Keywords:energy scenario, transition pathway, decarbonisation, renewable energy, zero CO2 emission, energy system model
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, ST
Deposited By: Pregger, Dr.-Ing. Thomas
Deposited On:04 Jan 2023 11:23
Last Modified:10 Jan 2023 12:08

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