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Monitoring Electricity Demand Synchronization Using Copulas

Gebhard, Tobias and Brucherseifer, Eva and Steinke, Florian (2022) Monitoring Electricity Demand Synchronization Using Copulas. In: 2022 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2022. 2022 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT-Europe), 2022-10-10 - 2022-10-12, Novi Sad, Serbia. doi: 10.1109/ISGT-Europe54678.2022.9960369. ISBN 978-166548032-1.

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Abstract

Synchronization of the behavior of residential consumers, for example during crises, can lead to overloads in electric power grids. This holds especially for distribution grids, where the electrical infrastructure is not designed for the simultaneous high consumption of all households. Therefore, the monitoring and detection of (upcoming) synchronization trends is important. It is the basis for any countermeasures. We propose to model the dependency structure of consumer demands with a Gaussian copula using its correlation parameter as an indicator for synchronization. We then analyze the probability distribution of the aggregated load depending on the synchronization indicator. This allows us to infer the synchronization parameter from load measurements in real-time using a Bayesian approach. In simulation experiments with realistic household consumption distributions, we show how increased synchronization can be detected.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/192545/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Monitoring Electricity Demand Synchronization Using Copulas
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Gebhard, TobiasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0009-0004-4351-4068UNSPECIFIED
Brucherseifer, EvaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9810-7671UNSPECIFIED
Steinke, FlorianTechnische Universität DarmstadtUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2022
Journal or Publication Title:2022 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe, ISGT-Europe 2022
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
DOI:10.1109/ISGT-Europe54678.2022.9960369
ISBN:978-166548032-1
Status:Published
Keywords:Synchronization, Copulas, Electricity demand, Resilience
Event Title:2022 IEEE PES Innovative Smart Grid Technologies Conference Europe (ISGT-Europe)
Event Location:Novi Sad, Serbia
Event Type:international Conference
Event Start Date:10 October 2022
Event End Date:12 October 2022
HGF - Research field:other
HGF - Program:other
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:Digitalisation
DLR - Program:D CPE - Cyberphysical Engineering
DLR - Research theme (Project):D - urbanModel
Location: other
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures > Digital Twins of Infrastructures
Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures
Deposited By: Gebhard, Tobias
Deposited On:18 Jan 2023 09:04
Last Modified:24 Apr 2024 20:53

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