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Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks hold in CMIP6?

Zechlau, Sabrina and Schlund, Manuel and Cox, Peter M. and Friedlingstein, Pierre and Eyring, Veronika (2022) Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks hold in CMIP6? Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. Wiley. doi: 10.1029/2022JG006985. ISSN 2169-8953.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG006985

Abstract

Emergent constraints on carbon cycle feedbacks in response to warming and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration have previously been identified in Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5. Here we examine whether two of these emergent constraints also hold for CMIP6. The spread of the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake to tropical warming in an idealized simulation with a 1% per year increase of atmospheric CO2 shows only a slight decrease in CMIP6 (-52 ± 35 GtC/K) compared to CMIP5 (-49 ± 40 GtC/K). For both model generations, the observed interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 yields a consistent emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon uptake with a constrained range of -37 ± 14 GtC/K for the combined ensemble (i.e., a reduction of ~30% in the best estimate and 60% in the uncertainty range relative to the multi-model mean of the combined ensemble). A further emergent constraint is based on a relationship between CO2 fertilization and the historical increase in the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitude in high latitudes. However, this emergent constraint is not evident in CMIP6. This is in part because the historical increase in the amplitude of the CO2 seasonal cycle is more accurately simulated in CMIP6, such that the models are all now close to the observational constraint.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/190207/
Document Type:Article
Title:Do Emergent Constraints on Carbon Cycle Feedbacks hold in CMIP6?
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Zechlau, SabrinaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5343-2446UNSPECIFIED
Schlund, ManuelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5251-0158UNSPECIFIED
Cox, Peter M.University of Exeter, Devon, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Friedlingstein, PierreUniversity of Exeter, Devon, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6887-4885UNSPECIFIED
Date:17 November 2022
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI:10.1029/2022JG006985
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:2169-8953
Status:Published
Keywords:- An emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming, originally derived from CMIP5, also holds for CMIP6. - The combined CMIP5+CMIP6 ensemble gives an emergent constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to global warming of -37 ± 14 GtC/K. - An emergent constraint on the fertilization feedback due to rising CO2 levels, previously derived, is not evident in CMIP6. - A possible reason is a better simulation of the sensitivity of the CO2 seasonal cycle amplitude to CO2 compared to observations in CMIP6.
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Lidar
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Model Evaluation and Analysis
Deposited By: Wenzel, Sabrina
Deposited On:28 Nov 2022 12:24
Last Modified:28 Feb 2023 14:55

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