Spatial Disaggregation of Future Hydrogen Demand for the Industrial and Transport Sectors in Europe

Kurzfassung

In light of climate change, hydrogen is considered one of the solutions sought to decarbonize different sectors. Hydrogen produced from renewable sources through electrolysis can play a significant role in achieving CO2 neutrality by substituting the use of CO2-emitting fuels in some industrial processes, such as the production of ammonia. Moreover, the integration of hydrogen into the transport sector enables the decarbonization of heavy-duty vehicles such as trucks and buses. Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have a weight advantage over battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as the additional weight caused by heavy batteries is avoided. In order to assess the expected disaggregation of the future hydrogen demand across Europe for the industrial and transport sectors, a regionalization tool was developed within this thesis. The tool considers 246 industrial facilities across Europe where either steel, ammonia, or refining products are produced. Based on the process-specific methodology applied in this thesis and the production values of 2020, these industrial facilities have a total estimated potential hydrogen demand of 634.5 TWh/year. This assumes a complete switch to green hydrogen and hydrogen-based alternatives in all these sites. For the transport sector, the investigated scenario assumes that 50% of passenger vehicles, 50% of trucks, and 60% of buses in the European market will be powered by hydrogen in 2050 hence rendering a total demand for road transport in Europe of 1033 TWh/year while the hydrogen demand in all of Europe's airports is expected to reach 639 TWh/year in 2050. The resulting hydrogen demand is distributed across Europe in highly populated regions or regions where refineries or ammonia production sites are located. Most of these industrial facilities are strategically located near ports and industrial hubs, making importing hydrogen easier in the future.