Sensitivity analysis of aerial wildfire fighting tactics with heterogeneous fleets using a system of systems simulation framework

Abstract

The rise in the average global surface temperature has caused wildfire seasons to expand leading to more incidents with severe intensities causing a significant increase in suppression expenditures, losses, and casualties. In addition, the larger number of wildfire incidents gives rise to higher carbon release that stays in the atmosphere, therefore, further intensifying global warming. Fire incidents vary substantially in complexity from the point of view of required and available firefighting means which makes for a challenging multi-level complex problem. System of Systems (SoS) approach can be used to investigate such problems taking into accounts various factors such as response time, firefighting tactics, fleet composition, available agents, and resources. This study uses a SoS simulation framework for overall wildfire suppression mission modeling. It builds upon the research previously performed by the authors by introducing: 1. An extensive analysis for the effect of wildfire environment parameters on fire spread. 2. Multiple suppression tactics which open the door to new solutions for wildfire fighting in addition to revealing nuanced trends at the system of systems level by using SoS framework. 3. A heterogeneous fleet composed of various suppression drones with different airframe configurations, payload capacity, flight velocity, and powertrain architecture.