Techno-economic assessment of biojet fuel production using a spatio-temporal analysis: a case study in Brazil

Abstract

A key target for the aviation sector is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 to mitigate climate change. One way to decarbonise the aviation sector is to utilise sustainable aviation fuels. Brazil is seen as a potential producer because it already has tradition with biofuel as well as available water and land. Many studies have assessed the Brazilian potential for BJF production in 2030, but none of them have done it for 2050. To assess the BJF potential for Brazil in 2050, this research utilises a SWOT analysis to determine promising conversion pathways, a land availability model to determine BJF yield and a techno-economic assessment to identify the economic potential of each promising conversion pathway. A total of eight conversion pathways were found to be promising in Brazil, including first and second generation biomasses. In total, the land availability model estimated a total of 13.8 trillion litres of potential BJF production. When adding the economic potential, it was found that Brazil has the potential to produce only 300,000 litres of BJF that is cost-competitive against fossil jet fuel. From these results, we concluded that Brazil is a potential future producer of BJF, whilst still maintaining environmental and food protection. However, policies and optimisation should work to decrease production costs and incentivise production, in order to decrease production costs and increase the economic potential.