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Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?

Mazzarella, Vincenzo and Milelli, Massimo and Lagasio, Martina and Federico, Stefano and Torcasio, Claudia and Biondi, Riccardo and Realini, Eugenio and Llasat, Maria del Carmen and Rigo, Tomeu and Esbri, Laura and Kerschbaum, Markus and Temme, Marco-Michael and Gluchshenko, Olga and Parodi, Antonio (2022) Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations? Remote Sensing, 14 (4440). Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI). doi: 10.3390/rs14184440. ISSN 2072-4292.

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Official URL: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/remotesensing


The growth of air transport demand expected over the next decades, along with the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfalls and severe storms due to climate change, will pose a tough challenge for air traffic management systems, with implications for flight safety, delays and passengers. In this context, the Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project has a dual aim, first to investigate if very short-range high-resolution weather forecast, including data assimilation, can improve the predictive capability of these events, and then to understand if such forecasts can be suitable for air traffic management purposes. The intense squall line that affected Malpensa, the major airport by passenger traffic in northern Italy, on 11 May 2019 is selected as a benchmark. Several numerical experiments are performed with a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using two assimilation techniques, 3D-Var in WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) system and a nudging scheme for lightning, in order to improve the forecast accuracy and to evaluate the impact of assimilated different datasets. To evaluate the numerical simulations performance, three different verification approaches, object-based, fuzzy and qualitative, are used. The results suggest that the assimilation of lightning data plays a key role in triggering the convective cells, improving both location and timing. Moreover, the numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based nowcasting system is able to produce reliable forecasts at high spatial and temporal resolution. The timing was found to be suitable for helping Air Traffic Management (ATM) operators to compute alternative landing trajectories.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/188760/
Document Type:Article
Title:Is an NWP-Based Nowcasting System Suitable for Aviation Operations?
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Mazzarella, VincenzoCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Milelli, MassimoCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Lagasio, MartinaCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Federico, StefanoIstituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima - C.N.R. (ISAC)UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Torcasio, ClaudiaIstituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima - C.N.R. (ISAC)UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Biondi, RiccardoGeosciences Department, University of Padua, Padua, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Llasat, Maria del CarmenDepartment of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rigo, TomeuMeteorological Service of Catalonia, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Esbri, LauraDepartment of Applied Physics, Universitat de Barcelona, SpainUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kerschbaum, MarkusAustro Control GmbH, Wien, AustriaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Temme, Marco-MichaelUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2446-5489UNSPECIFIED
Gluchshenko, OlgaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2189-1319UNSPECIFIED
Parodi, AntonioCIMA Research Foundation, Savona, ItalyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:6 September 2022
Journal or Publication Title:Remote Sensing
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Keywords:WRF; numerical weather prediction; nowcasting; data assimilation; severe weather; events; aviation; air traffic management
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Braunschweig
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Flight Guidance > Controller Assistance
Deposited By: Temme, Dr.rer.nat. Marco-Michael
Deposited On:25 Nov 2022 08:22
Last Modified:05 Dec 2022 10:55

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