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Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases: An introduction

Kühn, Martin Joachim (2021) Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases: An introduction. Mathematical Colloquium @ Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, 19.11.2021, Düsseldorf.

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Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining recent SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/188653/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases: An introduction
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Kühn, Martin JoachimMartin.Kuehn (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-0906-6984
Date:November 2021
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Sars-Cov-2, Covid-19, NPIs, interventions, measures
Event Title:Mathematical Colloquium @ Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf
Event Location:Düsseldorf
Event Type:Other
Event Dates:19.11.2021
Organizer:HHU Düsseldorf
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Space System Technology
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R SY - Space System Technology
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Tasks SISTEC
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Software Technology > High-Performance Computing
Institute for Software Technology
Deposited By: Kühn, Dr. Martin Joachim
Deposited On:17 Oct 2022 09:34
Last Modified:17 Oct 2022 09:34

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