Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia

Abstract

Tsunamis caused by large volcanic eruptions and flanks collapsing into the sea are major hazards for nearby coastal regions. They often occur with little precursory activity and are thus challenging to detect in a timely manner. This makes the pre-emptive identification of volcanoes prone to causing tsunamis particularly important, as it allows for better hazard assessment and denser monitoring in these areas. Here, we present a catalogue of potentially tsunamigenic volcanoes in Southeast Asia and rank these volcanoes by their tsunami hazard. The ranking is based on a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) composed of five individually weighted factors impacting flank stability and tsunami hazard. The data are sourced from geological databases, remote sensing data, historical volcano-induced tsunami records, and our topographic analyses, mainly considering the eruptive and tsunami history, elevation relative to the distance from the sea, flank steepness, hydrothermal alteration, and vegetation coverage. Out of 131 analysed volcanoes, we found 19 with particularly high tsunamigenic hazard potential in Indonesia (Anak Krakatau, Batu Tara, Iliwerung, Gamalama, Sangeang Api, Karangetang, Sirung, Wetar, Nila, Ruang, Serua) and Papua New Guinea (Kadovar, Ritter Island, Rabaul, Manam, Langila, Ulawun, Bam) but also in the Philippines (Didicas). While some of these volcanoes, such as Anak Krakatau, are well known for their deadly tsunamis, many others on this list are lesser known and monitored. We further performed tsunami travel time modelling on these high-hazard volcanoes, which indicates that future events could affect large coastal areas in a short time. This highlights the importance of individual tsunami hazard assessment for these volcanoes, the importance of dedicated volcanological monitoring, and the need for increased preparedness on the potentially affected coasts.