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Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results

Ulrich, Philip and Naegler, Tobias and Becker, Lisa and Lehr, Ulrike and Simon, Sonja and Sutardhio, Claudia and Weidlich, Anke (2022) Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 12 (35). Springer. doi: 10.1186/s13705-022-00361-5. ISSN 2192-0567.

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Official URL: https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13705-022-00361-5


t Background: Different strategies have been proposed for transforming the energy system in Germany. To evaluate their sustainability, it is necessary to analyze their macroeconomic and distributional effects. An approach to do this analysis in an integrated consistent framework is presented here. Methods: Comparing ten energy transition scenarios with emission reduction targets by 2050 of 80% or 95%, respectively, allows evaluating a broad range of energy system transformation strategies with respect to the future technology and energy carrier mix. For this purpose, an energy system model and a macroeconometric model are combined, thus re-modeling the unified scenarios. An important extension of the model was concerned with the integration of synthetic fuels into the energy-economy model. One focus besides the overall macroeconomic assessment is the regional analysis. For this purpose, own assumptions on the regional distribution of the expansion of renewable energies were developed. Results: The effects on gross domestic product (GDP) and employment are similar on average from 2030 to 2050 across the scenarios, with most of the more ambitious scenarios showing slightly higher values for the socioeconomic variables. Employment in the construction sector shows the largest effects in most scenarios, while in the energy sector employment is lower in scenarios with high energy imports. At the regional level, the differences between scenarios are larger than at the national level. There is no clear or stable regional pattern of relative loss and profit from the very ambitious transformation, as not only renewable energy expansion varies, and hydrogen strategies enter the scene approaching 2050. Conclusions: From the relatively small differences between the scenarios, it can be concluded that, from a macroeconomic perspective, it is not decisive for the overall economy which (supply side) strategy is chosen for the transformation of the energy system. More effort needs to be put into improving assumptions and modeling approaches related to strategies for achieving the final 20% CO2 reduction, for example the increasing use of hydrogen

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/188124/
Document Type:Article
Title:Comparison of macroeconomic developments in ten scenarios of energy system transformation in Germany: National and regional results
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Naegler, TobiasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2390-1672UNSPECIFIED
Simon, SonjaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2775-5457UNSPECIFIED
Sutardhio, ClaudiaINATECH, Universität FreiburgUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Energy, Sustainability and Society
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Keywords:Energy scenario, Macroeconomic modeling, Energy system modeling, Impact assessment, Regional impacts, Social indicators, Sustainability, Renewable energy, Hydrogen strategies
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Energy System Design
HGF - Program Themes:Energy System Transformation
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy System Technology and Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Naegler, Tobias
Deposited On:06 Sep 2022 11:14
Last Modified:06 Sep 2022 12:20

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