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Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021

Teoh, Roger and Schumann, Ulrich and Gryspeerdt, Edward and Shapiro, Marc and Molloy, Jarlath and Koudis, George S. and Voigt, Christiane and Stettler, Marc E. J. (2022) Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22, pp. 10919-10935. Copernicus Publications. doi: 10.5194/acp-22-10919-2022. ISSN 1680-7316.

[img] PDF - Published version
[img] PDF - Published version

Official URL: https://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.net/


Around 5 % of anthropogenic radiative forcing (RF) is attributed to aviation CO2 and non-CO2 impacts. This paper quantifies aviation emissions and contrail climate forcing in the North Atlantic, one of the world’s busiest air traffic corridors, over 5 years. Between 2016 and 2019, growth in CO2 (C3:13% yr-1) and nitrogen oxide emissions (C4:5 % yr-1) outpaced increases in flight distance (C3:05 % yr-1). Over the same period, the annual mean contrail cirrus net RF (204–280 mW m-2) showed significant inter-annual variability caused by variations in meteorology. Responses to COVID-19 caused significant reductions in flight distance travelled (-66%), CO2 emissions (-71%) and the contrail net RF (-66%) compared with the prior 1-year period. Around 12 % of all flights in this region cause 80 % of the annual contrail energy forcing, and the factors associated with strongly warming/cooling contrails include seasonal changes in meteorology and radiation, time of day, background cloud fields, and engine-specific non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) emissions. Strongly warming contrails in this region are generally formed in wintertime, close to the tropopause, between 15:00 and 04:00 UTC, and above low-level clouds. The most strongly cooling contrails occur in the spring, in the upper troposphere, between 06:00 and 15:00 UTC, and without lower-level clouds. Uncertainty in the contrail cirrus net RF (216–238 mW m-2) arising from meteorology in 2019 is smaller than the inter-annual variability. The contrail RF estimates are most sensitive to the humidity fields, followed by nvPM emissions and aircraft mass assumptions. This longitudinal evaluation of aviation contrail impacts contributes a quantified understanding of inter-annual variability and informs strategies for contrail mitigation.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/188048/
Document Type:Article
Title:Aviation contrail climate effects in the North Atlantic from 2016 to 2021
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Teoh, RogerDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United KingdomUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Schumann, UlrichDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5255-6869UNSPECIFIED
Gryspeerdt, EdwardGrantham Institute, Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ, UKUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Shapiro, MarcOrca Sciences, Kirkland, WA 98033, USAUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Voigt, ChristianeDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8925-7731UNSPECIFIED
Stettler, Marc E. J.Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United KingdomUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 10919-10935
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
Keywords:Contrail, Cirrus, Radiative Forcing, Energy Forcing, CoCiP, cliamte, North Atlantic, Aviation, Traffic
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Cloud Physics
Deposited By: Schumann, Prof.Dr.habil. Ulrich
Deposited On:31 Aug 2022 12:57
Last Modified:19 Sep 2022 13:23

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