Modeling the nationwide distribution of rice-crop suitability: Future land cover scenarios based on Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 & 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway "middle of the road" in Burkina Faso by 2050

Abstract

Changes in crop production and distribution due to climate variability will certainly imply challenges to food security in the mid- and long-term, especially in vulnerable areas of Sub Saharan Africa. Burkina Faso counts with National Strategies and Climate Change Adaptation Plans that aim at increasing the quantity as well as the quality of rice production in a sustainable manner in the face of drought hazard. The identification of potential sites and suitable inland valleys for rice-crop development is part of Agricultural Development Plans, to achieve food security and reduce poverty in the country. The present thesis research the potential suitability of rice cropping distribution of the Taisen-2 rice variety in the country under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) - 4.5 and 8.5 - and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) - middle of the road, by the year 2050. Land suitability is explored by a set of biophysical variables for both greenhouse concentration trajectories: 1) the presence of inland valleys (high water retention capacity), 2) a model of the length of the growing period (LGP) for this variety, and 3) the soil physical and chemical properties. Inland valleys future development potential under SSP2 is approached through a set of socioeconomic and farming variables: 4) population density, 5) presence of irrigation systems, 6) female-led agricultural households, 7) physical access to markets, and 8) access to agricultural credits. Data computation, statistical analysis and spatial assessment show that around 501 km2 and 639 km2 of land would be suitable for rainfed rice-cropping in the country under both RCPs, respectively, being Comoé and Kénédougou the provinces with the highest agricultural development potential in the country by 2050.