DEVELOPMENT OF A SCENARIO MODEL FOR THE SIMULATION OF THE TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION IN THE COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET IN GERMANY

Abstract

The absolute CO2 emissions of German road freight transport increased by 21 percent since 1995. However, the national target is to decarbonize the traffic-related CO2 emissions by 2045. This paper presents a scenario model to simulate the diffusion of alternative powertrains and energy carriers in the road freight vehicle market as well as the resulting energy demand in Germany until 2050. A scenario analysis compares three technological set-ups to climate neutrality. The results show a rapid market diffusion of battery-electric vehicles in all scenarios. However, the strengthening of CO2-Regulation is necessary to achieve the climate targets with increasing transport demand.