Evaluation of Parametric Cost Estimation in the Preliminary Design Phase of Reusable Launch Vehicles

Abstract

Reusability for space transportation vehicles offers the potential to lower launch costs, thus enabling low-cost and frequent access to space. Nevertheless, estimating the costs of such an RLV, although being the main driver for the economic success of such a vehicle, is a highly uncertain and unreliable task. For this paper, the well-known cost estimation tool Transcost was critically investigated in terms of its applicability to determine development costs of RLVs. In the course of this investigation new cost estimation relationships for ELV and RLV stages were determined. This analysis was complemented by an estimation of the development cost for the Falcon 9 by reverse-engineering methods. Furthermore, a statistical approach using uncertainties to determine probabilities for final costs is examined. Finally, a cost estimation method for recovery costs was established. The purpose of this investigation is to pave the way for a more thorough understanding of potential and limits of cost estimation in the preliminary design phase of RLVs.