Forecasting the weather to assist ATC and ATM operations

Abstract

In EUROCONTROLS's recent summary report on Climate Changes Risks for European Aviation, several weather-related impacts were highlighted. There is a strong relation between highly impacting weather events and disruptions to the aviation network resulting in additional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. In Europe, severe weather is responsible for up to 7.5% of the total en-route delays. In this respect, the H2020 Satellite-borne and IN-situ Observations to Predict The Initiation of Convection for ATM (SINOPTICA) project aims to demonstrate that very high-resolution and very short-range numerical weather forecasts, benefiting from the assimilation of radar data, in-situ weather stations, GNSS and lightning data, can improve the prediction of extreme weather events to the benefit of Air Traffic Management (ATM) and Air Traffic Control (ATC) operations. The assimilation of radar, GNSS, and lightning data shows a positive impact on the forecast of the convective cells for the four selected severe weather events. Moreover, two radar-based nowcasting strategies, PhaSt and RaNDeVIL, are tested to predict storm structures. Both methods are able to follow the more intense cells (VIL > 10 kg/m2) in all the case studies, as shown by the MODE results and the eye-ball verification The forecasts are used in an arrival management system (AMAN) to compute 4D trajectories around convective areas, integrate the affected aircraft into the arrival sequence, and assist air traffic controllers in implementing the approaches through just in time advisories and dynamic weather displays. With the help of real traffic scenarios and different weather models, diverse approach planning strategies are evaluated.