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Statistical analysis and predictability of large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances over Europe

Borries, Claudia and Ferreira, Arthur Amaral and Borges, Renato Alves (2022) Statistical analysis and predictability of large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances over Europe. SCOSTEP 15th Quadrennial Solar-Terrestrial Physics Symposium (STP-15), 21.-25. Feb. 2022, Online.

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Abstract

Since the ionosphere electron density has an effect on radiowave propagation, it is essential to characterize and predict the occurrence of ionosphere perturbations. Ionosphere perturbations are particularly strong during storm conditions, when the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field transfer significant amounts of energy into the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. One ionosphere perturbation phenomenon, which can be frequently observed during storm conditions, are Large Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs). They are the signature of atmospheric gravity waves, which are generated in the Auroral region due to sudden and intense Joule heating and expansion of the thermosphere. In past, many case studies analysed the occurrence of LSTIDs, and discussed the generation and propagation mechanisms. Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates, derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, are a well-suited parameter to study LSTIDs. They have been used to generate statistical studies on the LSTID characteristics and revealed a correlation of LSTID amplitudes with Joule heating, indicated by the Auroral Electrojet index (AE). The prediction of LSTIDs is a challenging task because of their transient nature. So far, no reliable LSTID forecast is available. In this study, we present a modified approach for assessing the LSTID occurrence and propagation. Statistical analyses for the European region show the correlation of LSTID occurrence with solar wind perturbations. The predictability of LSTIDs will be discussed and an initial approach for a prediction model based on artificial intelligence methods will be presented.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/185688/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Statistical analysis and predictability of large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances over Europe
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Borries, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9948-3353UNSPECIFIED
Ferreira, Arthur AmaralUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Borges, Renato AlvesUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6072-8621UNSPECIFIED
Date:February 2022
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:ionosphere, perturbation, storm, LSTID, travelling ionospheric disturbance
Event Title:SCOSTEP 15th Quadrennial Solar-Terrestrial Physics Symposium (STP-15)
Event Location:Online
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:21.-25. Feb. 2022
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Project Space weather research
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics > Solar-Terrestrial Coupling Processes
Deposited By: Borries, Dr. Claudia
Deposited On:21 Apr 2022 21:56
Last Modified:01 Oct 2022 03:00

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