Statistical analysis and predictability of large scale travelling ionospheric disturbances over Europe

Abstract

Since the ionosphere electron density has an effect on radiowave propagation, it is essential to characterize and predict the occurrence of ionosphere perturbations. Ionosphere perturbations are particularly strong during storm conditions, when the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field transfer significant amounts of energy into the Earth’s magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. One ionosphere perturbation phenomenon, which can be frequently observed during storm conditions, are Large Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (LSTIDs). They are the signature of atmospheric gravity waves, which are generated in the Auroral region due to sudden and intense Joule heating and expansion of the thermosphere. In past, many case studies analysed the occurrence of LSTIDs, and discussed the generation and propagation mechanisms. Total Electron Content (TEC) estimates, derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, are a well-suited parameter to study LSTIDs. They have been used to generate statistical studies on the LSTID characteristics and revealed a correlation of LSTID amplitudes with Joule heating, indicated by the Auroral Electrojet index (AE). The prediction of LSTIDs is a challenging task because of their transient nature. So far, no reliable LSTID forecast is available. In this study, we present a modified approach for assessing the LSTID occurrence and propagation. Statistical analyses for the European region show the correlation of LSTID occurrence with solar wind perturbations. The predictability of LSTIDs will be discussed and an initial approach for a prediction model based on artificial intelligence methods will be presented.