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The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements - An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows

Oesingmann, Katrin (2022) The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements - An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows. World Economy. Wiley. doi: 10.1111/twec.13245. ISSN 0378-5920.

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Official URL: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/share/VZTNKBFYRRCNXF2ZBXPI?target=10.1111/twec.13245

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of the standard gravity model variables and of various multinational agreements—namely the Euro, the European Union (EU), the Schengen Agreement and other regional trade agreements (RTAs)—on the volume of air cargo flows. To compare the impacts, the data set created for this analysis contains intra- and extra-European air cargo flows as well as data on air passenger and total trade flows. The results suggest that the impact of the analysed multinational agreements on air cargo flows diverges completely from their impact on total trade flows—however, the effects on air cargo flows are more similar to the effects on air passenger flows. Whereas the Euro and the Schengen Agreement affect air cargo volumes positively, EU membership and other RTAs do not significantly affect trade by air. Methodology-wise, different dynamic structural gravity models are formulated and estimated with Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). Including intranational flows and controlling for multilateral resistance, endogeneity and globalisation effects reverses the impact of some of the policy variables compared with an estimate based on a simple structural gravity model.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/185678/
Document Type:Article
Title:The determinants of air cargo flows and the role of multinational agreements - An empirical comparison with trade and air passenger flows
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Oesingmann, Katrinkatrin.oesingmann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2206-7527
Date:24 February 2022
Journal or Publication Title:World Economy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI:10.1111/twec.13245
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0378-5920
Status:Published
Keywords:air cargo, air passengers, multinational agreements, poisson pseudo- maximum likelihood, structural gravity, trade
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Ökonver II
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Economics
Deposited By: Oesingmann, Katrin
Deposited On:15 Mar 2022 14:47
Last Modified:15 Mar 2022 14:47

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