Evaluation of convective cloud microphysics in numerical weather prediction models with dual-wavelength polarimetric radar observations: methods and examples

Abstract

The representation of cloud microphysical processes contributes substantially to the uncertainty of numerical weather simulations. In part, this is owed to some fundamental knowledge gaps in the underlying processes due to the difficulty of observing them directly. On the path to closing these gaps, we present a setup for the systematic characterization of differences between numerical weather model and radar observations for convective weather situations. Radar observations are introduced which provide targeted dual-wavelength and polarimetric measurements of convective clouds with the potential to provide more detailed information about hydrometeor shapes and sizes. A convection-permitting regional weather model setup is established using five different microphysics schemes (double-moment, spectral bin ("Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics", FSBM), and particle property prediction (P3)). Observations are compared to hindcasts which are created with a polarimetric radar forward simulator for all measurement days. A cell-tracking algorithm applied to radar and model data facilitates comparison on a cell object basis. Statistical comparisons of radar observations and numerical weather model runs are presented on a data set of 30 convection days. In general, simulations show too few weak and small-scale convective cells. Contoured frequency by altitude diagrams of radar signatures reveal deviations between the schemes and observations in ice and liquid phase. Apart from the P3 scheme, high reflectivities in the ice phase are simulated too frequently. Dual-wavelength signatures demonstrate issues of most schemes to correctly represent ice particle size distributions, producing too large or too dense graupel particles. Comparison of polarimetric radar signatures reveals issues of all schemes except the FSBM to correctly represent rain particle size distributions.