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Introducing variance-based global sensitivity analysis for uncertainty enabled operational and economic aircraft technology assessment

Pohya, Ahmad Ali and Wicke, Kai and Kilian, Thomas (2022) Introducing variance-based global sensitivity analysis for uncertainty enabled operational and economic aircraft technology assessment. Aerospace Science and Technology, 122, p. 107441. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.ast.2022.107441. ISSN 1270-9638.

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Official URL: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ast.2022.107441


Assessing the efficacy of aircraft and technologies is a crucial step in the aeronautic product development. Due to their prospective nature, such analyses are subject to various uncertainties, which decrease their transparency and can act as a barrier for innovation. Therefore, a comprehensive and systematic inclusion of uncertainties is needed. For the use case of this paper being Hybrid Laminar Flow Control (HLFC), these comprise a number of inputs from different domains such as the design, operation, environment, or economics, leading to the underlying research question: Which parameters contribute to what extent to the output uncertainty of HLFC efficacy? To answer this, this paper introduces variance based global sensitivity analyses (GSA) in combination with a discrete event simulation framework. Considered outputs of the assessment comprise the Net Present Value (NPV) as an economic metric as well as the fuel efficiency as an operational performance indicator. A first monte-carlo simulation revealed an equivocal assessment outcome with Delta-NPV values ranging from -$ 11M up to +$ 22M. Results of a subsequent GSA reveal the cruise mach speed being the dominant element (39%) in this overall uncertainty, followed by the lack of knowledge in specific fuel consumption penalty (23%) and overall drag reduction potential (9%). Furthermore, this study includes an applied comparison of different GSA methods, i.e. Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test and the Sobol' method. While computed sensitivity indices are fairly equal among all alternatives, the lack of quantification of higher order terms of certain methods may pose a disadvantage if interaction effects are high. The contribution of this study helps to direct further research and development efforts regarding HLFC, e.g. to focus on a robust and aerodynamically less sensitive airfoil design. More generally, the use of GSA methods and further uncertainty quantification efforts in prospective assessments can significantly improve the trust in the analysis and with that, help in terms of a commercially successful HLFC development.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/185440/
Document Type:Article
Additional Information:This project has received funding from the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking (JU) under grant agreement No 945583. The JU receives support from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and the Clean Sky 2 JU members other than the Union. The results, opinions, conclusions, etc. presented in this work are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily represent the position of the JU; the JU is not responsible for any use made of the information contained herein.
Title:Introducing variance-based global sensitivity analysis for uncertainty enabled operational and economic aircraft technology assessment
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Pohya, Ahmad AliUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-2734-3199UNSPECIFIED
Wicke, KaiUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8220-6437UNSPECIFIED
Kilian, ThomasUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1395-608XUNSPECIFIED
Date:23 February 2022
Journal or Publication Title:Aerospace Science and Technology
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:p. 107441
Keywords:Global sensitivity analysis; Fourier amplitude sensitivity test; Sobol' indices; Hybrid laminar flow control
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Air Transport Operations and Impact Assessment, L - Aircraft Technologies and Integration
Location: Hamburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul > Product Life Cycle Management
Institute for Aerodynamics and Flow Technology > Transport Aircraft
Deposited By: Pohya, M.Sc. Ahmad Ali
Deposited On:28 Feb 2022 07:40
Last Modified:07 Mar 2022 07:29

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