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Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements

Forootan, Ehsan and Kosary, Mona and Farzaneh, Saeed and Kodikara, Timothy and Vielberg, Kristin and Fernandez-Gomez, Isabel and Borries, Claudia and Schumacher, Maike (2022) Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements. Scientific Reports. Nature Publishing Group. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-05952-y. ISSN 2045-2322. (In Press)

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Official URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-05952-y

Abstract

Global estimation of thermospheric neutral density (TND) on various altitudes is important for geodetic and space weather applications. This is typically provided by models, however, the quality of these models is limited due to their imperfect structure and the sensitivity of their parameters to the calibration period. Here, we present an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)-based calibration and data assimilation (C/DA) technique that updates the model’s states and simultaneously calibrates its key parameters. Its application is demonstrated using the TND estimates from on-board accelerometer measurements, e.g., those of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission (at ∼410 km altitude), as observation, and the frequently used empirical model NRLMSISE-00. The C/DA is applied here to re-calibrate the model parameters including those controlling the influence of solar radiation and geomagnetic activity as well as those related to the calculation of exospheric temperature. The resulting model, called here ‘C/DA-NRLMSISE-00’, is then used to now-cast TNDs and individual neutral mass compositions for 3 h, where the model with calibrated parameters is run again during the assimilation period. C/DA-NRLMSISE-00 is also used to forecast the next 21 h, where no new observations are introduced. These forecasts are unique because they are available globally and on various altitudes (300–600 km). To introduce the impact of the thermosphere on estimating ionospheric parameters, the coupled physics-based model TIE-GCM is run by replacing the O2, O1, He and neutral temperature estimates of the C/DA-NRLMSISE-00. Then, the non-assimilated outputs of electron density (Ne) and total electron content (TEC) are validated against independent measurements. Assessing the forecasts of TNDs with those along the Swarm-A (∼467 km), -B (∼521 km), and -C (∼467 km) orbits shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is considerably reduced by 51, 57 and 54%, respectively. We find improvement of 30.92% for forecasting Ne and 26.48% for TEC compared to the radio occulation and global ionosphere maps (GIM), respectively. The presented C/DA approach is recommended for the short-term global multi-level thermosphere and enhanced ionosphere forecasting applications.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/148565/
Document Type:Article
Additional Information:E. Forootan and M. Schumacher would like to thank the Department of Planning, Aalborg University for the financial supports and the German Research Foundation (DFG) for the Grant Number SCHM2433/13-1 (Project TIPOD: Development of High-precision Thermosphere Models for Improving POD of Low-Earth-Orbiting Satellites).
Title:Forecasting global and multi-level thermospheric neutral density and ionospheric electron content by tuning models against satellite-based accelerometer measurements
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Forootan, EhsanUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, Denmarkhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3055-041XUNSPECIFIED
Kosary, MonaSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Farzaneh, SaeedSchool of Surveying and Geospatial Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran 113654563, IranUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kodikara, TimothyUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4099-9966UNSPECIFIED
Vielberg, KristinInstitute of Geodesy and Geoinformation, University of Bonn, Nussallee 17, 53115 Bonn, GermanyUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Fernandez-Gomez, IsabelUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-7623-9219UNSPECIFIED
Borries, ClaudiaUNSPECIFIEDhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9948-3353UNSPECIFIED
Schumacher, MaikeUniversity of Aalborg, Department of Planning, Rendsburggade 14, 9000 Aalborg, DenmarkUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:8 February 2022
Journal or Publication Title:Scientific Reports
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-05952-y
Publisher:Nature Publishing Group
ISSN:2045-2322
Status:In Press
Keywords:thermosphere, ionosphere, Swarm, GRACE, TIE-GCM, calibration and data assimilation, NRLMSISE-00, neutral mass density, TEC
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Solar-Terrestrial Physics SO
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Deposited By: Kodikara, Dr Timothy
Deposited On:24 Feb 2022 09:54
Last Modified:24 Feb 2022 09:54

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