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Global Cargo Gravitation Model: Airports Matter for Forecasts

Baier, Fabian and Berster, Peter and Gelhausen, Marc (2021) Global Cargo Gravitation Model: Airports Matter for Forecasts. International Economics and Economic Policy. Springer Nature. doi: 10.1007/s10368-021-00525-2. ISSN 1612-4804.

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Official URL: https://rdcu.be/cCbk1


The reliability of forecast models in the aviation sector is an important factor for industry and policy makers likewise. Expanding airports and fleets usually is a cost and time intensive process, and in order to maintain efficient market behavior, accurate anticipation of future demand and structural changes is attempted. We present a new quantitative approach to air cargo forecasts utilizing global airport-dyadic ICAO CASS data in general linearized airport fixed effects gravity models. While the strong explanatory power of our time invariant constant model has its natural difficulties predicting a variety of smaller indicators from previous models found in literature, we achieve very good results for selected time variant variables as gross domestic product per capita or kerosene prices. This makes our model a perfect tool for forecast simulations: extrapolating general economic forecast data provided by IHS Markit yield similar results to Boeing cargo forecasts (2020), with a slight decrease in the long run. Additionally, we do not need to split or control our sample in regional groups due to airport fixed effects, which makes the model on the other hand suitable for country- and airport level forecasts as well. The utilization of a large unique bilateral freight data set also helps answering classical gravity model questions in aviation: we track the distance effect to a matter of sample selection, finding no significant interaction following state of the art gravity econometrics.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/147618/
Document Type:Article
Title:Global Cargo Gravitation Model: Airports Matter for Forecasts
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Baier, FabianFabian.Baier (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Berster, Peterpeter.berster (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Gelhausen, Marcmarc.gelhausen (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2021
Journal or Publication Title:International Economics and Economic Policy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1007/s10368-021-00525-2
EditorsEmailEditor's ORCID iD
Publisher:Springer Nature
Keywords:PPML Gravity, Air Cargo, Airport Fixed Effects, Aviation, Traffic, Forecasts
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AI - Air Transportation and Impact
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Air Transport Operations and Impact Assessment
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Air Transport and Airport Research > Air Transport Research
Deposited By: Baier, Fabian
Deposited On:16 Dec 2021 14:11
Last Modified:16 Dec 2021 14:11

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