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Cloud advection model of solar irradiance smoothing by spatial aggregation

Ranalli, Joseph and Peerlings, Esther E.M. (2021) Cloud advection model of solar irradiance smoothing by spatial aggregation. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 13 (3), 033704. American Institute of Physics (AIP). doi: 10.1063/5.0050428. ISSN 1941-7012.

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Official URL: https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/5.0050428

Abstract

Solar generation facilities are inherently spatially distributed and therefore aggregate solar irradiance in both space and time, smoothing its variability. To represent the spatiotemporal aggregation process, most existing studies focus on the reduced correlation in solar irradiance throughout a plant's spatial distribution. In this paper, we derived a cloud advection model that is instead based upon lagging correlations between upwind/downwind portions of a distributed plant, induced by advection of a fixed cloud pattern over the plant. We use the model to calculate a plant transfer function that can be used to predict the smoothing of the time series. The model was validated using the distributed HOPE-Melpitz measurement dataset, which consisted of 50 solar irradiance sensors at 1 s temporal resolution over a 3 × 2 km2 bounding area. The initial validation showed that the advection-based model outperforms other models at predicting the smoothed irradiance time series during manually identified, advection dominated conditions. We also conducted validation on the model against additional advection dominated periods in the dataset that were identified algorithmically. The cloud advection model's performance compared well to models in literature, but degraded slightly as larger cross-wind plant distributions were investigated. The results in this paper highlight the need to incorporate advection effects on spatial aggregation during advection dominated conditions. Future development of spatiotemporal aggregation models is needed to unify advective models with existing correlation reduction models and to identify regimes where each dominate.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/147542/
Document Type:Article
Title:Cloud advection model of solar irradiance smoothing by spatial aggregation
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Ranalli, Josephjar339 (at) psu.eduhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8184-9895
Peerlings, Esther E.M.Esther.Peerlings (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4561-9168
Date:23 June 2021
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:13
DOI :10.1063/5.0050428
Page Range:033704
Publisher:American Institute of Physics (AIP)
ISSN:1941-7012
Status:Published
Keywords:variability, spatial aggregation, wavelet variability model, transfer function, downscaling
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research, E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Oldenburg
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis, OL
Deposited By: Peerlings, M.Sc. Esther E.M.
Deposited On:15 Dec 2021 18:28
Last Modified:24 Jan 2022 12:32

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