Traffic Emissions 2040 - Impact on Air Quality in Germany

Abstract

Traffic emissions in Central Europe were calculated for today and for future scenarios in 2040. For Germany, a sophisticated multi-model chain including transport models, fleet composition models and an up-to-date set of emission factors was embedded. The relationship between transport demand and emissions for several road types has then been applied to other Central European countries for calculating transport demand from total road traffic emissions in these countries. This allows for the construction of consistent and detailed future scenarios for 2040, taking into account modified transport demand and fleet composition. Three emission scenarios were modelled with the full model chain based on societal and legislative developments that are both, plausible and consistent. The traffic emission data was then, together with emissions for all other relevant sectors, fed into the CMAQ chemistry transport model. Concentrations of NO2, O3 and PM2.5 have been calculated for summer and winter in the year 2010 and for three emission scenarios for 2040. All scenarios revealed an emission reduction in the order of 75–80% for NOx in 2040 compared to 2010. NO2 concentrations caused by traffic emissions were reduced accordingly. Their contribution to overall NO2 concentrations in Central Europe was halved in 2040.