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Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods

Witte, Dustin and Lichte, Daniel and Wolf, Kai-Dietrich (2020) Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods. In: 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020, pp. 4589-4595. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, Venedig, Italien. ISBN 978-981148593-0.

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Abstract

To carry out a complete security risk assessment, three fields must be taken into consideration, namely threat, vulnerability and consequence. This paper is dedicated to threat analysis as a process to think ahead scenarios of possible future attacks. An approach for the description of potential threats and the quantification of their likelihoods is presented. The method is based on a common scenario developing process and extended by specifics of security risk assessment considering uncertainties regarding the occurring scenario. The approach is presented in the course of a generic assessment of physical security of a high voltage transmission substation. It is split into three steps. First, an asset is defined for which a space of possible scenarios is construed by structuring feasible threats according to morphological analysis. Therefore, threat descriptors and characteristics are determined for the example of the transmission substation. Second, the likelihoods of scenarios are assessed by judging the cross-impact between characteristics using a Bayesian network. Dependencies between descriptors are assumed. Marginal and conditional probabilities of the characteristics are estimated, respectively. In a final step, a comprehensive list of scenarios is generated by forming the Cartesian product of characteristics grouped by the descriptors. Scenario likelihoods are computed by the chain rule for Bayesian networks. The scenario list can then serve as a starting point for vulnerability and consequence analysis.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/147230/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Witte, DustinBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Lichte, DanielDaniel.Lichte (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-5823
Wolf, Kai-DietrichBergische Universität WuppertalUNSPECIFIED
Date:2020
Journal or Publication Title:30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:No
Page Range:pp. 4589-4595
ISBN:978-981148593-0
Status:Published
Keywords:Bayesian Network, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Cross-Impact Analysis, Morphological Analysis, Physical Security, Quantitative Method, Scenario Development, Threat Analysis
Event Title:Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
Event Location:Venedig, Italien
Event Type:international Conference
HGF - Research field:other
HGF - Program:other
HGF - Program Themes:other
DLR - Research area:no assignment
DLR - Program:no assignment
DLR - Research theme (Project):no assignment
Location: Rhein-Sieg-Kreis
Institutes and Institutions:Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures > Resilience – Models and Methods
Deposited By: Lichte, Dr.-Ing. Daniel
Deposited On:13 Dec 2021 13:19
Last Modified:13 Dec 2021 13:19

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