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Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods

Witte, Dustin und Lichte, Daniel und Wolf, Kai-Dietrich (2020) Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods. In: 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020, Seiten 4589-4595. Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, 2020-11-01 - 2020-11-05, Venedig, Italien. doi: 10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4283-cd. ISBN 978-981148593-0.

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Kurzfassung

To carry out a complete security risk assessment, three fields must be taken into consideration, namely threat, vulnerability and consequence. This paper is dedicated to threat analysis as a process to think ahead scenarios of possible future attacks. An approach for the description of potential threats and the quantification of their likelihoods is presented. The method is based on a common scenario developing process and extended by specifics of security risk assessment considering uncertainties regarding the occurring scenario. The approach is presented in the course of a generic assessment of physical security of a high voltage transmission substation. It is split into three steps. First, an asset is defined for which a space of possible scenarios is construed by structuring feasible threats according to morphological analysis. Therefore, threat descriptors and characteristics are determined for the example of the transmission substation. Second, the likelihoods of scenarios are assessed by judging the cross-impact between characteristics using a Bayesian network. Dependencies between descriptors are assumed. Marginal and conditional probabilities of the characteristics are estimated, respectively. In a final step, a comprehensive list of scenarios is generated by forming the Cartesian product of characteristics grouped by the descriptors. Scenario likelihoods are computed by the chain rule for Bayesian networks. The scenario list can then serve as a starting point for vulnerability and consequence analysis.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/147230/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Vortrag)
Titel:Threat Analysis: Scenarios and Their Likelihoods
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Witte, DustinBergische Universität WuppertalNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Lichte, DanielDaniel.Lichte (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3314-5823NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wolf, Kai-DietrichBergische Universität WuppertalNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:2020
Erschienen in:30th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2020 and 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference, PSAM15 2020
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
DOI:10.3850/978-981-14-8593-0_4283-cd
Seitenbereich:Seiten 4589-4595
ISBN:978-981148593-0
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Bayesian Network, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Cross-Impact Analysis, Morphological Analysis, Physical Security, Quantitative Method, Scenario Development, Threat Analysis
Veranstaltungstitel:Proceedings of the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference
Veranstaltungsort:Venedig, Italien
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsbeginn:1 November 2020
Veranstaltungsende:5 November 2020
HGF - Forschungsbereich:keine Zuordnung
HGF - Programm:keine Zuordnung
HGF - Programmthema:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Schwerpunkt:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:keine Zuordnung
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):keine Zuordnung
Standort: Rhein-Sieg-Kreis
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für den Schutz terrestrischer Infrastrukturen > Resilienz- und Risikomethodik
Hinterlegt von: Lichte, Dr.-Ing. Daniel
Hinterlegt am:13 Dez 2021 13:19
Letzte Änderung:11 Jun 2024 13:59

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